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Future & Options Trading
Thu Mar 17, 2022
Let’s Dive in, You Know a deep dive analysis. Let’s find out the Trick in the Trade.
Before we go-ahead, we need to know, what is Demand & Supply?
As buyers move into the market for a stock, demand grows faster than supply and so the price will increase. Often supply and demand find equilibrium at a price that buyers accept and sellers accommodate. When supply and demand balance, so they are roughly equal, prices will gyrate up and down in a narrow price range.
Understand Better, let me put this in a simple way.
In General, let’s see the market in 3 direction, Up Trending Market, Down Trending Market & Sideways.
Let’s consider, Demand as Resistance, when the Resistance is taken off Decisively. We can consider Market is in a Up Trend or Bullish Market.
Same goes, When Supply as Support, Market gives a Breakdown, we consider Market is in a Down Trend or Bearish Market.
Side way: whenever there is absent of aggressive Buyer or Aggressive seller, Price will move within the range.
Market Profile (01 Image): is an intra-day charting technique & graphical representation that combines price and time information in the form of a distribution. A Market Profile is used to determine elapsed time, number of ticks and volumes traded at specific prices, or over a price interval, over a given period.
Calculating Value: TPO (Time Price Opportunity) is the basic building block of market profile. Multiple TPO blocks jointly form profile structure (profile distribution)
1. Count the total number of TPOs in a single day's profile
2. Calculate 70% of this number
3. Identify the Point of Control (POC), the longest line of TPOs closest to the centre of the profile
4. Add the TPOs of the two prices above and below the POC.
Order Flow (02 Image): footprint charts allow traders to see what type of orders are being placed at a certain time in the market & amount of Buy and Sell orders at a given price point
Traders can use their analysis, to identify the probability on the price of the market by these orders & there by helps traders to a make prediction on the future price and direction of the market. Order flow trading is a type of short-term trading strategy as it is used to enter the market accurately based on recent executed buy and sell orders. Order Flow Trading is sometimes referred to as a form of volume trading.
Order Flow Traders can see levels of support and resistance by the size of buy and sell orders. On a footprint chart these are shown by buy and sell imbalances. A buy imbalance tells us that there are much more buyers than sellers at that price point, indicating potential support levels. A sell imbalance shows that there are a lot more sellers than buyers at that price point and this can indicate a potential resistance point. The volume of buyers and sellers is also used to indicate potential trend reversals and is a strategy that some order flow traders will apply to footprint charts.
Trick in the Trade: The 1000 points Strategy (03 Image): it’s all about have a profitable trade, Executing a trade and the right levels. This 1000 points strategy is outline in a breakdown structure. Strategy has been divided in two levels & in each level there are multiple sub strategies outlined.
Level 1. Market Portfolio & Structure Analysis: in this level (04 Image): We will study the complete life cycle of Market profiling in terms of recorded and the analysis of market behavior & the psychological or Sentiments in price pattern.
Level 2. Order Flow Analysis – Tool Kit: in this level (05 Image): With the help of Price Pattern, We can analysis the bench mark of each stock for true/false, breakout/breakdown. Based on demand & supply, means the point, where can we expect a high probability of a good trade with a maximum profit. Yes, with the combination of both the levels, we can analyse that today is, what Market, Up Trending Market, Down Trending Market & Sideways & who is having the control, is it the Buyers or Sellers and the exhaustion levels. Means pullback or market reversal.